BPL 08/09 Relegation Dogfight

As we step into the last third of the BPL 08/09 season, the relegation battle heats up with effectively up to 11 teams involved in the fight to escape relegation. What a season cliffhanger if it turns out that any of these 11 teams could be relegated on the very last day.

As at 10 February 2009, Fulham sits in 10th place with 30 points and WBA sits at the bottom of the table with 22 points. A mere 8 points separate them with 9 teams sandwiched in between. It is interesting to note that Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are also in this mix of team.

One can argue that Newcastle has been unlucky with injuries to key players such as Owen, Viduka, Martins, Smith and Duff. With a change in manager from Kevin Keegan to Sam Allardyce and to Joe Kinnear, the players must have been confused with the constant change of technical approach and motivation levels. With the sale of James Milner at the start of the season, coupled with the departure of club captain Shay Givens and Charles N’Zogbia, the next few months will be shaky to say the least. The impact of new players like Kevin Nolan, Peter Lovankrends and Ryan Taylor are still in question. With the hospitalization of Kinnear over last weekend, it remains to be seen how well the club can cope with so much distraction in a season. Well, this is Newcastle and distractions are a common denominator in the past few years.

How about Hotspur then? Its one big ‘not-so-merry’ go round for this London club. At the start of the season, they were tipped to break up the gathering of the big 4 English team but how low they have sunk. Tottenham made wholesale changes at the start of this season with Paul Robinson, Defoe, Keane, Chimbonda and Berbatov (in Sept) all sold by the club and replaced by Modric, Bentley, Pavlyuchenvo, Dos Santos, Gomes and Corluka. Within the first few weeks and with a couple of losses, the pressure was building up on Juande Ramos to deliver. Snap! The patience of the fans led to the owners snapping the one man that brought them a title in years…….

Out went Ramos and in came Harry “the wizard’ Redknapp, who deserted a club (Portsmouth) that was so loyal to him. Harry waved his magical wand and brought out 5 wins and a draw in his first 6 games with the same set of players that Ramos had. Ramos was forgotten and the fans were cheering Harry wildly. Well, as the saying goes, what goes around comes around. Fate brought Spurs back to their kneels and send them plunging down the table as Harry started to lose his cool and lament about the imbalance with the same set of players who started so brilliantly for him. Along came the January transfer windows and guess what Mr Redknapp did? He brought back old boys Defoe, Chimbonda and Robbie Keane at cheaper price. Stroke of genius? Preplanned? Anybody’s guess but it certainly adds to the gossip column and Harry’s reputation as the ‘Judas’ of Portsmouth.

Speaking of Portsmouth, they are also down in the pits at 16th place with 24 points. Will they survive the departure of their saviour Harry? Well, many thought so when Tony Adams stepped up to fill the void. However, with the financial crisis at large, Adam’s hand was forced with the sale of 2 of his best players. Off went Diarra to Real Madrid and Defoe followed his mentor Redknapp to Tottenham. The slide began. With no money available in the transfer window, Tony could only bring in some mediocre players like Basinas, Mullins and Gekas to save his job. At the end, after 2 wins in 16 league games, the owners’ patience ran out and poor Adams is still surprised with the decision.

What about the rest? Stoke City, Hull City and WBA were the favorites to go down at the start of the season as the premiership newbies were not expected to survive the tough conditions. Although the verdict is not out yet, these three clubs have gone head on into the premiership and one have certainly embraced it with much gusto.

Hull City was certainly mixing it up at the start of the season. They were beating teams like flies and also added the famous scrap of Arsenal to their array of wins. At the heart of most of their moves was the player named Geovanni. Playing like his idol Pele, Geovanni orchestrated most of Hull’s attack and finished off many of their moves. How Manchester City could have let this talented midfielder go for free will be one of the mysteries of season 2008/09. Like most good things in life, the good run came to an end and Hull is left to lick their wounds with only 2 points in their last 8 games and only 1 win in their last 15 games, plunging the team to 12th position in the BPL with 29 points in tow. However, things have been turning around, albeit slowly, with 2 draws in the last 2 games. With an astute signing in Jimmy Bullard in the January transfer window, don’t expect Hull to be in the bottom three when the season ends. Well, at least Hull is faring much better than its promoted counterparts.

Blackburn and Middlesbrough currently sits in 2nd and 3rd last placing in the 20 team table. Both teams have also changed managers in this season of record breaking changes of managers. Mark Hughes left Blackburn to take over super rich Manchester City and Paul Ince took over the reigns. However, Ince did not last long as his relative inexperience shown when thrown into the deep end. Big Sam took over the reigns and stablised the team. Blackburn recent run of 10 games without defeat was broken by a surging Villa side, but the run effectively gave the Rovers a chance for survival in the BPL.

Although Boro has had the stability of a longer serving manager, Gareth Southgate days may be numbered even though owner Steve Gibson has loyally backed his managers over the years. Last weekend’s defeat marked a dismay run of ZERO wins in 13 premier league games. At this rate he is going, no amount of loyalty or friendship would be able to protect his rice bowl.

Sunderland, on the other hand, received the resignation of the iron man who booked their safety passage last season. Roy Keane, deemed capable and tough by many, cracked under pressure and tendered his resignation. Ricky Sbragia, the former number 2, stepped up, tightened the shape of the team and turned the fortunes of the club. His twin strikeforce of Cisse and Jones has netted a combined total of 16 goals in the premiership this season. This healthy return of goals for a blossoming partnership can only mean well for the survival of the club.

That will leave me with Fulham and Bolton. Veteran teams of survival, both teams have undertaken many fights to still stay in the premiership. Roy Hodgson tactical mastery at the helm of Fulham would enable the club to survive another relegation dogfight. Although he has lost Bullard, he has gained a veteran fighter in Oliver Dacourt. With Zamora and Andrew Johnson scoring the goals from assists by Danny Murphy and Simon Davies, expect the Cottagers to finish just about 10th place as they are now.

Although Bolton lost their club captain Kevin Nolan a week ago, this bunch of Wanderers has enough experience to last the pace. With Jussi Jaaskelainen still magnificent in goal and Kevin Davies still poaching the odd goal for Bolton, expect the Wanderers to still be wandering in the Premiership next season as Gary Megson plots his future with Bolton.

In summary, this season relegation dogfight is the most interesting one in years. With a win for the bottom three, coupled with a loss for the 15th to 17th position team, the 6 teams would effectively switch positions! How close can that be! Expect the fight for survival to be down to the wire. Survival may be a case of 1 point, goal difference or even head-to-head clashes or goals for/against! I for one, will be keeping my bets off on the relegation teams as it will be too close to call.